Saturday, October 30, 2004

I've seen the future...

Ok, I've been hearing that Republicans should be thanked for India's prosperity for some reason! I agree that Republicans might be pro corporations but I think both offshoring & India's prosperity couldn't have happened only in the last four years now, could it? Tata Consultancy Services started offshoring way back in 1968! So, I think the political party at the helm didn't have much to do with it. I feel corporations focus on lowering operating costs was the reason.

Also, one shouldn't confuse outsourcing with offshoring. These are two different animals entirely.

Anyways, here's my prophecy -

1. Kerry will win.

2. In terms of the Iraq war, Kerry will start pulling troops out and stop putting in good money after bad. UN will be asked to step in and get the Iraqi people involved in governing their own country whether it's by a central government or through a coalition of the warlords in the different regions.

3. Afghanistan will be more in focus as Kerry will still be trying to get Osama.

4. Overall economy will start rebounding for a number of reasons. First, investors will show a little more trust in the economy. Second, the perception that American jobs stay in America will get reinforced. Not because outsourcing will be reduced though.

5. Outsourcing companies, both Indian and others, will simply start hiring more Americans, and try to operate at lower costs (smaller cubicles maybe?). However, outsourcing as a phenomenon will continue.

6. Offsoring will also slowly gain new meaning as other companies start setting up branches in countries closer to America e.g. Mexico & Canada. This will reduce time zone differences as well as give the benefit of lower costs.

7. Important Note: Outsourcing & Offshoring will happen more for the growth of the company rather than acting as replacement of current infrastructures. For example, if a call center is to be added, it might get added in Canada or Mexico, staffed by Indians rather than getting sent across to halfway around the globe.

8. Additional tasks will start getting outsourced from companies. Business Process Outsourcing will gain a broader & broader definition. (Well, if the US Army can outsource it's tasks then why can't corporations!)

9. Prosperities of countries like Brazil, India, China & Russia will continue to grow. Innovative solutions out of these countries will help them in becoming more global players than they have been in the past.

10. Globally, copyright will stop being the bugbear that it is today. Linux will rule, as will region free DVD players!

11. Increasing bandwidth availability will cut down telecommunication costs drastically. This will have more profound implications than what can be imagined currently. Media will get shared more and more rather than getting copied. After all, how many radio stations do you actually tape? The reason being that radio is ubiquitous. (A handheld recordable satellite radio is just the tip of the iceberg!) The same thing is going to happen to media. Both video and audio is going to get streamed rather than being consumed in packages. Charges will drastically reduce as both distribution & marketing costs go down.

12. Marketing will gain a new meaning through social networking software. Currently, this path of marketing is hardly utilised. Imagine hiring someone for chatting about Matrix Part IV in a chat room!

13. Google and other independant search engines will gain more importance. As will lesser known and more obscure audio & video which have not been marketed as heavily as the best sellers.

Thirteen seems like a good number, so I'll stop there! (And keep my fingers crossed!!)


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